from stratfor.com
Summary
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem said April 8 that the Lebanese militant group would consider disarming on the condition that Israel withdraws from the disputed Shebaa Farms near the Lebanese-Israeli border. Fully aware that Israel is not likely to make such a concession, Hezbollah appears to be playing a shrewd game with Washington that will allow the militant group to stave off U.S. pressure by making an offer it probably will not have to carry out.
Analysis
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem, speaking in an April 8 Financial Times interview, gave the first public indication that the Lebanese militant group might consider disarming provided Israel withdraws from the disputed Shebaa Farms -- a stretch of 77 square miles claimed by Lebanon. Qassem said that following disarmament, Hezbollah might become a "reservist army" under the Lebanese military.
In the wake of the Feb. 14 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, pressure on Hezbollah to disarm in accordance with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559 rapidly escalated. However, this pressure has largely been applied by the United States and Israel, both eager to take advantage of Lebanon's chaotic state of affairs to strip Hezbollah of its reputation as a resistance movement, thereby isolating one of Iran's major international assets.
The European Union, on the other hand, has resisted branding Hezbollah a terrorist organization largely because of France's financial ties in Lebanon, which make it unwilling to alienate Hezbollah's supporters. Furthermore, Lebanese opposition groups, already struggling to form a unified front against pro-Syrian loyalists, have refused to insist on Hezbollah's disarmament out of fear of losing the support of the group's Shiite base. Lebanese opposition leaders Walid Jumblatt and Gen. Michel Aoun have gone on record in support of Hezbollah's right to exist as a resistance movement against Israel, and even U.N. envoy Terje Roed-Larson recently said disarmament is not on his "action agenda" for Lebanon.
Hezbollah has effectively dodged the issue of disarmament for the time being, which raises the question of why the militant group would suddenly signal its willingness to make a deal with Israel. After all, Hezbollah has issued a series of hard-line refusals to even consider laying down its arms, including an April 4 statement from Hezbollah's political bureau member Ghaleb Abu Zeinab, who said the movement "will not disarm even if the Israelis withdraw from the Shebaa Farms ... Hezbollah's arms are here to protect Lebanon from any Israeli attack and create a balance of terror in the face of Israel."
Hezbollah appears to be playing a shrewd game in response to Washington's recent offer to recognize the organization as a legitimate political force if it lays down its arms. The militant group's leaders know Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is in no position to make any major concessions to Hezbollah since he has put his life on the line for Israel's unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank.
By showing a willingness to talk about disarmament with its southern neighbor, Hezbollah has effectively thrown the ball back into Washington's court. In the meantime, Hezbollah could maintain its position as a resistance movement against Israel for domestic consumption, taking advantage of the spotlight by showing it can behave as a rational militant-political-social actor vital to Lebanon's stability.
Though disarmament might not happen any time soon, Hezbollah has a strong interest in redefining itself as a legitimate political force working in the Lebanese interest. Once Hezbollah does not face the risk of being viewed as caving in to U.S. or Israeli interests, Stratfor expects the group to join ranks with such political actors as the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, whose militias are largely accepted by the international community.
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