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from stratfor.com
Hazmat teams converged on an area of Manhattan’s Penn Station on Oct. 7, a day after authorities revealed a new terrorist threat against New York City’s mass transit system. An entrance to the station was closed for more than an hour before investigators determined that a suspected toxic substance left inside a soda can near the ticket window posed no threat. Police have urged the public not to be alarmed over this latest threat to the city, saying the source of the information is credible but that the threat has not been verified.
The information that led to the alert originated in Iraq some time ago. During the course of collecting information about insurgent activities there, U.S. intelligence agencies were led to believe that members of the jihadist insurgency were plotting an attack in the United States. Some of the information specifically mentioned that 15 to 20 individuals were in the United States for the purpose of attacking the New York City mass transit system. U.S. intelligence also collected information indicating that the attack would be carried out in approximately 90 days.
Based on that information, the Defense Intelligence Agency on Oct. 3 passed the information to New York City authorities. Although the information was fairly specific, it was not considered actionable and could not be corroborated, so New York authorities did not immediately release it.
The information, however, led to an Oct. 5 raid on suspected insurgents in Musayyib, a town south of Baghdad in the so-called “triangle of death.” The nearly lawless town is the scene of frequent attacks by members of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s jihadist network, al Qaeda in Iraq. Information given to authorities by the two or three alleged al Qaeda in Iraq members arrested in the raid led officials in New York to consider the threat serious, and to act on it. Security measures were increased on the subways Oct. 6 after the New York Police Department (NYPD) was unable to discredit the information.
Although other U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies are not entirely convinced the threat information is credible, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly decided to err on the side of caution. New York, the scene of two terrorist attacks in 1993 and 2001 as well as numerous foiled plots, is especially sensitive to terrorist threats. In addition, after the bombings of mass transit systems in London and Madrid, authorities in New York had no choice but to take a threat against its subways seriously.
It is no secret that New York is in the crosshairs of any number of terrorist groups. Beyond its enormous symbolic value to the United States, the city is home to the United Nations and the U.S. financial district. It also is densely populated and contains a large and affluent Jewish population. Furthermore, as a hub of U.S. and international media, any attack in New York City would receive instant and complete international coverage. From the standpoint of terrorist target selection, then, the city meets all the criteria.
For Bloomberg, the political repercussions of not reacting to this threat would be severe – even if it is later determined to have been a false alarm. Should it come out that he was informed of the threat – which he has called the most specific terrorist threat that New York officials had received to date – but did not act, his political opponents could use that against him in the November mayoral election.
New York City and its subway system remained Oct. 7 at threat level Orange – the second-highest level in the alert structure – where it has stood since Sept. 11, 2001. NYPD, however, has deployed additional officers, tactical heavy-weapons teams and bomb-sniffing dogs to the city’s subways and commuter rail services.
The heightened state of alert and situational awareness could make the New York City subway system the safest in the world in the short term – though it is worth pointing out that bombers attempted the July 21 London Underground attacks in the face of increased security. Meanwhile, commuters and NYPD personnel will see briefcase bombs and terrorists under every seat and behind every turnstile on the subway. False alarms like the one at Penn Station and bogus threats from pranksters will add to the tension. Over time, however, the strain of maintaining a heightened state of readiness will lead to a relation of vigilance and a more complacent security atmosphere.
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