|
from stratfor.com
Three powerful bombs exploded in India’s capital of New Delhi on Oct. 29 – two in crowded markets in the Paharganj and Sarojini Nagar districts in the city’s central and southern areas, and another in the Govindpuri district, also in southern New Delhi. The blasts killed some 61 people, most of them shoppers preparing for the Hindu Festival of Lights and the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr.
A Kashmiri Islamist militant group claimed responsibility for the bombings in Oct. 30 phone calls to local newspapers in Indian-administered Kashmir. The Islami Inqilabi Mahaz (Islamic Revolutionary Front) said it staged the blasts – and warned that additional attacks would follow. According to Indian Joint Commissioner of Police Karnal Singh, the little-known group was founded in 1996 and has ties to Lashkar-e-Taiba, which in turn has ties to al Qaeda.
The first bomb detonated at 5:45 p.m. local time in one of the capital’s main marketplaces. The explosion, in the ethnically mixed Paharganj district, killed 18 people. Minutes later, another, larger bomb exploded at a market in the predominantly Hindu Sarojini Nagar district, killing 43 people. Almost simultaneously, a bomb exploded in the predominantly Hindu Govindpuri neighborhood, injuring nine people. Although an attacker left the third bomb on a bus, an alert driver responded in time – and likely saved the lives of many passengers. The driver later reported that a man in his 20’s had gotten off the bus after refusing to buy a ticket, leaving behind a large black bag. Examining the bag, the driver discovered the bomb and threw it into some bushes.
Indian authorities believe the bombs were made of RDX, a powerful, military-grade explosive that some Kashmiri militant groups are known to use. The bombings were not suicide attacks, but involved timed devices left behind by the bombers. Unlike the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, a separatist group that has practically refined suicide bombing to an art form, Kashmiri militants typically do not employ suicide bombs, preferring instead to use timed devices.
The bombings could indicate that the Kashmiri militants are taking a page from the al Qaeda playbook. Attacking a crowded marketplace – a soft target filled with potential victims – is a tactic used repeatedly in Iraq by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s jihadist network.
Although India has witnessed marketplace bombings in the past, Kashmiri separatist groups have not attacked a market in more than two years – preferring instead to target public transport such as trains and buses. In August 2003, at least 40 people died and 125 were wounded in two explosions in Mumbai one week before the Hindu Ganesh festival. The next month, a bomb exploded in a fruit market in Srinagar, the summer capital of Indian-administered Kashmir.
The Oct. 29 attacks come amid increasing security concerns in India. On Oct. 10, the U.S. State Department issued a Warden Message warning U.S. citizens in India of a possible threat of terrorist attacks. The message, which specifically mentions possible suicide car bombings, said attacks could be directed against U.S. interests in New Delhi, and also in Hyderabad, Mumbai and Kolkata.
There is reason to believe that follow-on attacks will occur. The bombs used Oct. 29 were detonated by timers, not suicide bombs, meaning the cell is still intact and can strike again once more bombs are built. Security has been stepped up in New Delhi, with more uniformed police patrolling the streets and barricades and checkpoints set up. The heightened security, however, unlikely will deter additional attacks if they are planned for the near future. Terrorist cells have attacked in the face of increased security before, notably in London, were an attack attempt occurred just two weeks after the July 7 Underground bombings.
The cell responsible for the New Delhi attacks could simply wait until security relaxes, or stage attacks in other cities, such as Bangalore or Hyderabad, where many Western high-tech firms operate call centers. Even if attacks in those cites do no directly target Western companies, any attack in those cities is guaranteed to make executives and investors nervous.
|
