Al Qaeda Waning?

…Fear…doesn’t seem to sell as easily as it did.

In retrospect, the Madrid strike in March 2004 may prove to be the high point of terror’s fear offensive. Spain left the Iraq coalition. Since then, the jihadists have had many headlines, but no victories.

London’s bulldog response to attacks in July 2005 was a distinct rejection of fear, but it is one of many. Arguably, Afghanistan began the trend with its successful October 2004 presidential election, conducted despite Al-Qaida’s sworn vow to stop it. Arab media have noticed the Iraqi people’s grit and guts. The Iraqis have not buckled despite “Al-Qaida in Mesopotamia’s” daily massacres. These are massacres in a Muslim land launched by jihadist extremists – a point that no one misses.

Al-Qaida also is dogged by an extraordinary “policy failure.” In the wake of 9-11, Al-Qaida proclaimed a new “global caliphate.” Jemaah Islamiya’s sole policy goal remains the creation of a grand “Islamic state” stretching from southern Thailand through Malaysia, and the Philippine and Indonesian archipelagoes.

Three years after Bali, four years after 9-11, the jihadists “God-ordained empire” hasn’t materialized.

We might also consider the possibility of “media saturation.” Terrorists don’t simply target Bali and Baghdad, they target the news media. A bomb produces searing, gripping TV footage. But over time, sensational violence becomes, well, less sensational. The latest attack on Bali is being treated as a heinous echo of 2002, not the harbinger of jihadist revolution. When Al-Qaida’s explosions lose their media sizzle, Al-Qaida will have lost completely.

— Austin Bay, Tech Central Station
October 5, 2005