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from stratfor.com
Summary
Trying to distance himself from complaints of government corruption and his country’s general deterioration, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko dismissed the Ukrainian government, including Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, on Sept. 8. Now Yushchenko must struggle to maintain his shrinking support base within the country, and Moscow and Washington will once again play geopolitical tug-of-war over Kiev.
Analysis
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko on Sept. 8 dismissed his country’s government, including Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and National Security and Defense Council head Pyotr Poroshenko. Other resignations followed, and more are expected to come.
This government crisis has not come out of the blue. Since the December 2004 “Orange Revolution” brought a pro-Western regime to power, Ukraine’s economic, social and political situation has rapidly deteriorated. The three main reasons for that are a fierce power struggle within the new regime, accelerated corruption and the gross mismanagement of the country and its economy. From the very beginning, Timoshenko tried to wrest control of the country from Yushchenko. Timoshenko and Yushchenko each supported two competing and uncompromising groups of oligarchs, which exacerbated the internal power struggle that preoccupied government officials and led them to neglect the economy. Timoshenko’s administrative measures to regulate the economy worsened the situation, as did the ongoing energy crisis brought about by her attacks against Russian and other companies – such as TNK-BP, part of the BP energy empire – that supplied Ukraine with Russian oil and gas. On top of all this, Ukraine’s relations with Russia were quickly spoiled, and promised aid from the United States and other Western countries – which are disappointed with Kiev’s violation of market economy rules – has not come.
Thus, the new regime found itself increasingly unpopular domestically, with many of its recent supporters – those who helped the “Orange Revolution” happen – growing angry with Kiev’s erratic policies. The parliamentary elections coming in spring 2006 have added an element of urgency to resolving the ongoing crisis. Yushchenko had wanted to dismiss Timoshenko for a long time but feared such a move would break up the regime. However, after Timoshenko refused to go to the parliamentary elections as part of Yushchenko’s “Our Ukraine” coalition and initiated a corruption investigation against Yushchenko’s main supporter Poroshenko (also called “Yushchenko’s wallet,” as he financed the president's campaigns), Yushchenko was left with no choice but to dismiss the prime minister.
However, dismissing Timoshenko and her Cabinet came with a heavy price: Trying to distance himself from the high-flying charges of corruption, Yushchenko had to part with Poroshenko as well; Poroshenko tendered his resignation, and Yushchenko accepted it. Immediately, the Ukrainian Parliament deprived Poroshenko of membership status, and he could well end up behind bars.
The government crisis is in full swing and far from resolution. Yushchenko seems to be losing support in Kiev; his appointing Yuri Ekhanurov – who is an ethnic Buryat, not a Ukrainian – from Yushchenko's home city of Dnepropetrovsk, as new prime minister indicates Yushchenko is seeking support from his home clan. However, the Dnepropetrovsk clan itself is sharply divided; Yushchenko’s foes, Timoshenko and former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, also belong to that clan and enjoy support from large segments of the clan.
With the loss of Poroshenko, open war with the dismissed Timoshenko and the numerous foes he already has, Yushchenko’s prospects for success in the parliamentary elections are very much in doubt. And with all other forces inside Ukraine also in disarray, it seems there will be even more power struggles and internal crisis. Outside players will not remain indifferent, given Ukraine’s crucial geopolitical location next to Russia. Moscow now has a good reason to expect Yushchenko to strongly moderate his anti-Russian policies – it is now clear that anti-Russian policies have brought only trouble to Ukraine so far, and many of the officials Yushchenko dismissed were anti-Russian, so he probably will have to turn to neutral or even pro-Russian politicians for support. Washington, meanwhile, will do its best to save its recently gained influence over Ukraine.
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