|
from stratfor.com
A police raid in the Turkish city of Gaziantep netted six suspected al Qaeda militants who authorities said were planning attacks in Turkey, the Anatolia news agency reported April 23, without specifying the date of the raid. At least one of the suspects is a foreigner, possibly with links to Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to the report.
The presence of the foreign militant in Gaziantep, 450 miles southeast of Ankara, appears consistent with the al Qaeda practice of using experienced operatives closer to the jihadist network’s leadership to establish and direct local cells. The arrests suggest that al Qaeda’s interest in Turkey remains – adding to the already-tense security situation caused by Kurdish militants.
The militant group Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK) has staged eight bombings over the past three months, killing two people and injuring 47. In eastern Turkey, meanwhile, increased fighting between the military and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has prompted Washington to warn U.S. citizens against traveling there. Al Qaeda could be trying to take advantage of this increased Kurdish militant activity – using it as a cover for, or to divert attention from, the jihadist network’s own movements.
Al Qaeda conducted a series of suicide bombings in Turkey during 2003, and tried as recently as December 2005 to carry out attacks against cruise ships visiting the country’s southern coast. Ankara is holding more than 70 suspected al Qaeda militants in connection with the 2003 attacks, including a Syrian believed to have been involved in the killing of a British hostage in Iraq in 2004. Given this activity, it is possible that at least some level of cross-pollination between the Kurdish militants and al Qaeda operatives is occurring – giving al Qaeda the opportunity to exploit vulnerabilities the Kurds have identified.
During the most recent bombing campaign, TAK, the more radical of the Kurdish militant groups, released statements on the Internet vowing revenge against Ankara and threatening to cause chaos. The group also extols the virtues of suicide bombers in its statements, indicating that it is perhaps being influenced by jihadist elements – possibly al Qaeda. With this in mind, it might not be long before TAK escalates its campaign by using suicide bombers – either foreign jihadists or local militants mentored and instructed by an al Qaeda cadre.
Overall, the Turks have been relatively successful in containing Kurdish elements, which have failed to achieve their goal of establishing an independent Kurdish state in the region despite decades of fighting. In this, Ankara benefits from close intelligence relationships with the United States and Israel to help it pinpoint possible activity before it can progress to the attack stage.
Adding to the continuing Kurdish threat, however, is the possibility that jihadist cells are forming under the mentorship of foreign operational commanders – a tactic used by al Qaeda in the past.
|
