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from stratfor.com
A suicide truck bomber hit an Iraqi police checkpoint in the volatile
town of Al Fallujah on March 10, killing at least 11 people, including
five Iraqi police officers. The fate of U.S. soldiers who also man the
post is unknown. This latest attack, most likely the work of foreign
jihadist insurgents, comes at a time when the number of suicide attacks
in Iraq is on the decline.
The insurgency against the U.S.-led coalition and the new Iraqi
government is centered in the Sunni-dominated parts of Iraq, primarily
the four provinces that make up the “Sunni Triangle” and “Triangle of
Death.” In these areas, the insurgency consists primarily of Iraqi
nationalists from local Sunni tribes and foreign jihadists led by Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi’s network, al Qaeda in Iraq. Other Iraqi jihadist
groups are active, notably Jaish Ansar al-Sunnah, which operates
primarily in Kurdish-dominated northern Iraq, but the jihadists under
al-Zarqawi are responsible for the majority of suicide attacks.
The foreign jihadists enter Iraq from Saudi Arabia, Syria and Jordan. From the borders, members of local tribes in Sunni-dominated Anbar
province lead them through a network of safe-houses to their final
destination – often in Baghdad, As Samarra, Ar Ramadi or Al Fallujah.
The process of getting the volunteers from their home countries to their
final destination, known to the U.S. military as the “rat line,” is
believed to take about 30 days.
Suicide attacks have declined in Iraq since December 2005. Compared with
a year ago, when multiple, coordinated attacks occurred several times a
week, the jihadist capability appears greatly diminished. This could be
the result of U.S. military pressure and a crackdown in Jordan following
the Nov. 9 hotel bombings in Amman. The lack of support for the
jihadists from the Sunni tribes, especially in Anbar province, however,
probably is the most significant reason for the decline.
The latest suicide attack comes as Iraq’s Sunnis are turning on their
former jihadist allies. Since October 2005, fighting between Sunni
insurgents and foreign militants has been reported several times in
Anbar province, particularly in Al Qaim on the Syrian border – one of
the main entry points for jihadists. In Ar Ramadi, which has been a
hotbed of the insurgency, local tribal leaders recently said they soon
would clear the city of foreign fighters. This cessation of support
would account for the decline in suicide bombings; without help from
local Sunni tribes, the jihadists would find it difficult to plan
attacks and get to their targets inside Iraq.
Most of the victims of jihadist suicide bombings have been civilians – innocent bystanders. This has been especially true since coalition and
Iraqi security forces developed tactics and deployed better equipment to
protect themselves from the attacks. With the momentum of the political
process increasing, the leaders of the Sunni tribes in Anbar could have
determined that they can gain more on the political front by
constricting jihadist operations than by supporting suicide bombers on
the military front. As the political process becomes increasingly
important to them, the Sunni tribes have realized that the jihadists’ marginal usefulness is decreasing – given the difference in their
ultimate objectives – and that eventually the jihadists will pose a threat to them.
Since spring 2005, the U.S. military, often in conjunction with Iraqi
forces, has conducted a series of offensive operations along the
Euphrates River in Anbar province intended to shut down the rat line.
The operations, however, would stem the flow of foreign fighters only as
long as they lasted. Beginning in the summer, then, the U.S. military
increased the frequency of the offensives in an effort to keep
near-constant pressure on the jihadists and their Sunni allies in the
months leading up to the Dec. 15 elections. Although the increased
operational tempo taxed U.S. forces in the area, it wore on the
insurgents as well.
The crackdown on jihadists in Jordan following the Nov. 9 suicide
bombings – carried out by members of al-Zarqawi’s network – also could
be complicating al-Zarqawi’s efforts to shore up his ranks. With the
Jordanian General Intelligence Directorate clamping down on traffic in
and out of Iraq, that alternative route through Anbar province would now
be compromised.
Although fighting in Iraq has claimed hundreds of lives since the Feb.
22 bombing of the Shiite Golden Mosque in As Samarra and attacks against
coalition and Iraqi security forces continue, the shape of the
insurgency could be changing. Should subsequent political and military
developments lead the Sunnis to believe they have more to gain by
unleashing the jihadists again, however, suicide attacks could increase.
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