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from stratfor.com
Summary
Units of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet conducted regularly scheduled
exercises on the Crimean Peninsula on Sept. 28. In the past, these
exercises drew criticism and protests from Ukraine, but with Kiev in
crisis, these latest maneuvers passed without comment. Ukraine’s
complacency over the Russian exercises indicates the level of
uncertainty the government of President Viktor Yushchenko faces during
Ukraine’s political crisis. With Yushchenko’s future uncertain, Ukraine
is temporarily backing away from anti-Russian sentiment and rhetoric.
The next Russian exercises in the Crimea likely will occur in spring
2006. Depending on developments in Kiev, the Ukrainian reaction could be
completely different then.
Analysis
The Russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet conducted maneuvers at its Opuk
training ground near the town of Feodosiya on the Crimean Peninsula on
Sept. 28. The exercises involved naval ships, attack aircraft and
helicopters, and a landing by approximately 300 Russian marines.
Similar exercises in March drew scathing criticism from the government
of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko. The current exercise, which is
more than twice the size of the March maneuvers, could represent
Moscow’s response to an increasing NATO presence in the Black Sea
region. In July, for example, U.S. Marines conducted joint exercises
with Ukraine in the Crimea, and Bulgaria is preparing to become a base
for approximately 3,000 NATO troops. Just a few years ago, these
developments in the Black Sea – historically a vital region to Russia – would have been unthinkable. With Ukraine’s pro-Western “revolution” stalled by its governmental crisis, Russia can be expected to increase
it efforts to strengthen its presence and influence in the Black Sea.
Though much smaller than the current maneuvers, the March exercises drew Kiev’s strong condemnation. The first exercises followed by only a few months Ukraine’s “Orange Revolution,” which swept Yushchenko into office. Confident after their victory in the December 2004 election, anti-Russian elements in Ukraine quickly lashed out at the exercises, which highlighted the issue of the continued presence of Russian bases in the Crimea. The lack of Ukrainian comment on the current, much larger exercises could indicate that the Ukrainians are wary of agitating Russia during Kiev’s current predicament.
By ignoring the latest Russian military exercises in the Crimea, Kiev
has indicated that it is putting its anti-Russian sentiment on hold, at
least until Ukraine’s government is more unified, and the country’s
economic situation improves. It is therefore unlikely that Ukraine will
make more noise about Russia’s presence in the Crimea until at least
after Ukrainian parliamentary elections in March 2006. Around that same
time, the Black Sea Fleet probably will conduct its next major
exercises, taking advantage of improving weather. If the elections go
Yushchenko’s way, Kiev could be much more vocal about the spring
exercises than it has been about the current round.
For its part, Russia can be expected to continue to display military
power and exert economic influence in the Black Sea region as a reaction
to what Moscow perceives as NATO encroachment in a region vital to its
interests.
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