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from stratfor.com
Summary
In her first press conference on U.S. soil, new German Chancellor Angela Merkel indirectly repudiated the long-time Franco-German axis – and planted the seeds for a deep revamping of U.S.-German relations.
Analysis
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. President George W. Bush held their first summit Jan. 13 in Washington, D.C. The joint press conference that followed was notable for what the two world leaders said – but even more so for what they did not say.
Merkel’s opening remarks were clearly not intended for her U.S. audience. What started out as a pep-talk for the Germans evolved into a description of the ways in which U.S. interests complement those of Germany. Merkel’s government is as untested as it is unwieldy, being as it is a seven-week-old coalition of Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats and the center-left Social Democrats once led by her opponent, Gerhard Schroeder.
She indirectly repudiated the long-time Franco-German axis, saying that Berlin would boost relations with Europe’s smaller states, who she said are essential to the project of European unification.
But as the opening remarks ended and the press questions began, Merkel planted the seeds for a deep revamping of U.S.-German relations.
Merkel clearly noted that “NATO is the forum” for strategic discussions, a far cry from her predecessor’s insistence that the mission of the U.S.-dominated security alliance is over. She threw down the gauntlet to Beijing, noting that “we have competitors like China who don’t abide by any rules.” In comments on Iran she went so far as to say, “We will not be intimidated by a country such as Iran," using words such as “lie” and “cheat” in describing Tehran’s actions on the nuclear issue.
All in all it will be difficult for U.S. strategists to find dark spots in Merkel’s comments. Even on the issue of Guantanamo Bay – whose existence Merkel criticized in the run-up to the summit – she deliberately glossed over the subject. When pressed by the media to elaborate, she noted that the West – not simply the United States – faces a problem with the legalities of how to handle terrorism detainees and expressed her desire to work toward a fresh international solution to the matter. While that was not the blank check that U.S. officials like Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld might like, it represents a massive step forward in European-American understanding.
For his part, Bush also played not only to the German crowd, but was sure to do so in a way that made clear that U.S. interests are in lockstep with Berlin’s, going out of his way to emphasize that Germany is the “heart of Europe” and enthusiastically extolling Merkel's virtues.
Yet notable by its absence was the topic currently most critical to Germany: Russia. On Jan. 1 a natural gas pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine resulted in a cutoff of supplies to a number of European states, with Germany first and foremost among them. As the move was all part of a package of Russian pressure tactics, the Germans – supported by Washington – immediately condemned the action.
For the Germans, the cutoff was a bit of an eye-opener. Few in Europe, particularly in Germany, believed that the Russians would ever use natural gas supplies as a political lever. Against the Ukrainians, maybe, but certainly never again them, the thinking went. Disabused of that notion, the question in Berlin no longer is: How much Russian natural gas should we buy? It is: How do we make ourselves less dependent upon the Kremlin? That is a question the White House would love to help the Germans answer.
The fact that the topic did not even come up at the press conference – in fact, the only mention of Russia was in the context of the Iranian nuclear situation – suggests Merkel and Bush cooked up something. Mentioning whatever that “something” is during the press conference would have destroyed Merkel’s leverage – not against Washington, but against Moscow. Merkel travels to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Jan. 16, and she likely will have an American card up her sleeve.
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