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from Stratfor.com
Geography has led most practitioners of geopolitics to neglect or ignore South America. No other continent facilitates the delineation of country borders and the isolation of population centers quite like South America. Geographic barriers effectively prevent or decrease the frequency of conflict between South American nations. The Andes have for centuries hampered both military and economic interaction between the peoples residing along its western coast and those inhabiting the rest of the continent. Where mountains do not interfere, the Amazon and its surrounding marshes act as a large sea, dividing the rest of the continent’s major population centers.
The world has mostly taken for granted that conflict on a large scale has not mattered in South America for more than a century. (Though conflict with an external force over territory outside the continent occurred in 1982 during the Falklands War between Argentina and the United Kingdom.)
Enter Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador. The Organization of American States adopted a resolution on Wednesday reaffirming the principle that the territory of a state is “inviolable” and cannot be invaded by an outside force. The resolution was adopted following Colombia’s military incursion into Ecuadorian territory to eliminate a Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) camp. The ensuing mobilization of Venezuelan troops along the Colombian border, which was a show of support to Venezuela’s ally, Ecuador, by no means indicates that actual military combat will take place as a result of the Colombian raid.
However, the incident indicates that as South American nations increasingly define their individual nationalistic identities and jockey for political and economic clout, the continent’s geopolitical balance will change. This will likely result in more frequent skirmishes between states. Still, small conflicts will mostly propel the illusion that major conflicts are likely, and geographic realities will continue to keep the status quo and territorial integrity of South American nations intact for the near future.
Conflict between states around the world can happen when nations are on the rise or are declining, in economic turmoil or economic prosperity. In South America’s case, however, initiating conflict is a major logistical ordeal. It is very difficult to mobilize troops and large portions of a population across snow-covered mountains, jungle-covered mountains (as is the case along the Venezuelan-Colombian border), vast deserts, swamps and rainforest. Add to this most South American nations’ historic lack of a large military/industrial base, and military conflict or cross-border interferences are likely only to occur from an assured nation experiencing significant economic growth and national consolidation.
Interstate conflict (conflict between nations) has been relatively limited on the continent. Intrastate conflict (within a nation) is prevalent. Take Colombia’s constant struggle with FARC, for one example. Many South American states have long histories of intrastate conflict, often between various indigenous groups or between European-blooded elites and rural inhabitants. This condition, along with geographic factors, has contributed to the low potential for interstate conflict as well. The most recent large interstate conflict in the region, the 1982 Falklands War, did not take place on the continent and involved a South American nation on only one side.
Colombia’s recent endeavors across international borders reflect its increased assertiveness and recent economic gains. Another South American nation is increasingly assertive as well.
Brazil is perhaps the most vibrant South American nation today. Economic growth is steady and its government is very stable for South America. Brazil’s economy and internal consolidation are accelerating at a much faster rate than those of its neighbors, particularly Bolivia, Paraguay and Argentina. Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay are traditional buffer states against possible Brazilian expansion. This is one of the few areas in South America in which borders are relatively unobstructed. Small military maneuvers from Brazil in these areas would be relatively easy. Build-up of infrastructure, transport and industry along its border increases the capability of Brazil to project its power.
The building up of infrastructure throughout the continent, increasing populations and economic growth accompanied by technological innovation are softening the hard geographic barriers that have kept South American borders stable and movements across them limited. Currently, this is not enough to alter the geographic realities that shape the politics of the region.
Technological and economic developments have not yet trumped the continent’s strong geographic forces in a way that fundamentally alters the geopolitical dynamic on the continent. Although burgeoning infrastructure, increasing populations and economic growth and technological innovation throughout the continent are softening the hard geographic barriers that have kept South American borders stable and movements across them limited, this is not currently enough to alter the geographic realities that shape South American politics. Historic population centers will remain separated for quite some time and the costs of transportation, military or otherwise, will remain high.
Global attention directed toward the prospect of a war between two South American nations, with possible intervention by the United States, is quite rare and the international community mostly has viewed any skirmishes on the continent as minor, internal affairs throughout the last several decades. However, with the economies of South America on the rise, tensions along borders and their relevance to the rest of the world will rise as well.
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