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from Stratfor.com
Russian President Vladimir Putin broke out an old supply of bile on Wednesday when he called for permanent increases in the capabilities of both the military and the FSB – the Russian successor to the Soviet KGB.
Stratfor never takes such statements from people who possess nuclear capabilities lightly. But, in this case, the apparent militancy behind the comment is sadly funny. Russia has had a hard run since the end of the Cold War, facing military, social, economic, medical and political declines. But all of these pale in comparison to – and feed into – the worst disaster of all: Russia’s demographic collapse.
Low birth rates, combined with soaring death rates – particularly among men between the ages of 30 and 55 – have saddled the country with the worst demographic picture in centuries of any nation that is not at war. Even Russian government demographers admit the population is dropping by about 750,000 people per year, just as the average Russian grows older and, therefore, less productive. Most independent demographers estimate that by 2050 Russia’s population will have decreased by one-third of its current total, approximately 140 million. The only reason Russia lacks a pension crisis like those many other developed states are experiencing is that, a few years back, Moscow moved the retirement age past the (falling) average age of death. As a country, Russia is – quite literally – dying.
So why the chest beating and saber rattling? What does Russia have to worry about? Is the Cold War not over? Well, yes and no.
While it is certainly true that NATO lacks the military force even to contemplate an invasion of Russia, this does not mean NATO is not perceived as aggressive. In the Russian mind, NATO and the European Union have willfully expanded to absorb all of the former Soviet satellites, as well as the Baltic countries and Slovenia. Now the West is perceived by the Russians to be in the process of tossing away or creatively reinterpreting agreements such as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, slowly but irrevocably reshaping the European landscape to suit its needs.
For the Europeans, it is about reknitting the European fabric after two generations of separation. For the Americans, it is about leaving the Cold War behind and preparing for the conflicts of tomorrow. The ever-expanding U.S. nuclear missile defense network – which made headlines Wednesday when the British offered up the Royal Air Force base at Menwith Hill – is only one part of the U.S. effort to fashion a world in which Russia is an afterthought.
For the Russians, it is about being told in a rather absentminded and oblique way that they and their interests no longer matter.
But matter they do, and while the Russians are indeed dying, they are not dead yet. Acting as if they were is tantamount to discussing a grandmother’s past marital infidelities before she finalizes her will, and expecting her to be oblivious to it.
On the same day Putin demanded better military and FSB capabilities, the military made it clear that the president’s call is not just talk, installing in Moscow one of the few new pieces of military hardware the Russians have perfected since the end of the Cold War: the S-400 air defense missile battery. Russia’s other new technologies include the Topol and Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs); the former is land-launched and already entering service, while the latter is sub-launched and in the final stages of development. Between them, these ICBM designs will make up the backbone of Russia’s nuclear deterrent in a decade’s time.
While it has not exactly turned a corner, the Russian defense industry is undergoing a massive overhaul that can only make things better. On Wednesday, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov – a bean counter who the army hates – was named to the seemingly obvious position of board chairman of Russia’s military shipbuilding operations. And much of the rest of the military-industrial complex is being taken over by Sergei Chemezov, Putin’s point man for defense reforms and the one in charge of Rosoboronexport, the government’s weapons export arm.
Beyond defense, high energy prices have allowed the country to claw its way back from the destitution of the 1998 ruble collapse and helped it accrue one of the world’s largest foreign reserves accounts. Russia is actually so cash-rich that has a budget surplus, despite having increased defense spending by double-digit percentages for seven years in a row. Moscow’s energy and resources exports give it direct influence throughout Europe and Turkey. Its people feel more secure than they have in a generation, and they have a leader who most are willing to follow, despite his merely passing fancy with democratic institutions.
No state with Russia’s capabilities has ever gone down easily. (Honestly, the real surprise is that Moscow has been so quiescent for so long.) Why should anyone expect that the Russians – in spite of all their problems – will “go gentle into that good night”?
While it might not last, Russia is coming back. It has a mark yet to make on this world.
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