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from Stratfor.com
Summary
Hamas announced June 18 that it will use all means necessary, including force, to ensure the release of British Broadcasting Corp. journalist Alan Johnston if he is not released by the end of the day. Hamas’ dedication to freeing Johnston while it is in the middle of battling Fatah is part of its strategy to paint itself as a responsible political player now that Hamas has the chance to govern on its own in Gaza. This strategy also could bring about the release of abducted Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Whether Hamas would succeed in establishing political legitimacy through Johnston’s or Shalit’s release is highly questionable, however.
Analysis
A senior Hamas official said June 18 that it is the last day for kidnappers to release kidnapped British Broadcasting Corp. journalist Alan Johnston, and that Hamas will use “all means to secure his life.” Johnston was abducted in Gaza more than three months ago and is being held by a group that calls itself Army of Islam. The group has demanded that the United Kingdom release Muslim prisoners, particularly Islamist cleric Abu Qatada, in exchange for Johnston’s release.
A Hamas representative in Tehran said June 17 that Johnston would be freed within hours and that any delay to his release was needed to guarantee his safety. The same day, a video broadcast by Al Jazeera carried a declaration by Army of Islam that no deal had been made to secure the journalist’s release and that he would be killed “if the situation gets more complicated concerning us and our group.”
It might seem odd that Hamas is placing such a heavy emphasis on securing the release of a Western reporter while it is in the middle of a civil war with Fatah. But now that Hamas has overplayed its hand in Gaza and is facing a serious risk of isolation, the group’s leaders are desperately attempting to show that it can be a responsible political player as long as it is given the chance to govern. Hamas is now in firm control of Gaza, and wants to show that it can manage things much more effectively when it is not handicapped by its ongoing power struggle with Fatah.
Hamas also is trumpeting up the threat of jihadist forces taking root in Gaza to get the West to believe that any attempts to undermine Hamas’ legitimacy and internal cohesion will allow jihadists to make inroads into the Palestinian territories and present a larger problem down the road for Israel and its neighbors. If Hamas can show it can exert influence over – or use force against – this apparent jihadist group holding Johnston, it will be signaling that it has what it takes to rein in militants with an affinity for transnational jihadism.
But securing Johnston’s release is not going to be easy, particularly since Hamas will face a tough time counterbalancing other Islamist militant groups that recently have sprouted in Gaza. It would not be beyond Hamas to have set up some of these jihadist groups as front organizations to carry out attacks against Israel and only later to crack down on them to demonstrate its ability to rein them in.
Another card Hamas has to play is Israeli solider Gilad Shalit, who was abducted by Hamas militants nearly a year ago just before the outbreak of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon. If Hamas becomes desperate enough, it could decide to make a behind-the-scenes offer of Shalit’s release in exchange for a new power-sharing agreement with Fatah giving Hamas more control over the Palestinian security apparatus.
Now that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has dissolved the National Security Council run by Mohammed Dahlan (a Fatah figure who is reviled by Hamas), negotiations between Hamas and Fatah could be a tad more feasible. After all, the leadership of both Fatah and Hamas realize that dividing the territories into de facto mini-states effectively precludes any need for Israel to negotiate seriously over the creation of a Palestinian state, and by refusing to deal with each other the parties are incurring self-inflicted wounds. That said, it cannot be assured that the West will have a change of heart if Hamas manages to secure either Johnston’s or Shalit’s release.
Meanwhile, Israel will sustain pressure on Hamas to release Shalit, since his release is just what Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert needs to hold on to his faltering coalition.
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