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from Stratfor.com
Summary
Leftist parties dominated European politics throughout the 1990s and the early years of the 21st century; however, 2007 will see the end of the left as a leading force on the Continent. This slow shift has been accompanied by a move toward the right that reaches farther than the traditional “Big Three” – Germany, France and the United Kingdom – to include Poland, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria. In fact, a series of elections has allowed center and right parties to take the reins in all the large European states. It is time to consider the possibilities raised by a conservative Europe.
Analysis
Conservatives have not controlled the majority of European states since the 1980s, when Europe and the United States faced a very different geopolitical reality. Allied with Washington under then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan, the Europe of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was not the relatively consolidated Continent it is today. The European Union boasted only 10 members in 1980; it now has 27. While the European Union has grown unwieldy, its existence still represents a move toward an aligned and cohesive geographic entity. Significantly, Germany under Chancellor Angela Merkel has emerged as a potential leader, with both the political and economic clout to at least attempt to steer the states toward common goals.
Stratfor first forecast the decline of the European left in 2005, when Germany and Poland both elected center-right coalitions. The current agenda of the right in both countries favors participation in military alliances such as NATO and closer U.S. relations. The Polish government is an avid supporter of the missile defense shield proposed by the United States, and under Merkel, Germany is considering getting behind such a program – a policy her leftist predecessor, former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, finds inconceivable.
This change is not limited to Germany; the left has faltered throughout Europe, even in places where the right has historically been the underdog. For example, in September 2006, Sweden’s Social Democrats – the country’s oldest political party – lost control of Stockholm. In March, Finland elected the Center Party to power, and the June 10 Belgian elections likely will see the ouster of Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt and his Liberal Democrat Party. The right has yet to grasp power in Europe, but it will not be long before the conservatives consolidate their hold on the Continent.
After 10 years at the helm, the British Labor Party faces elections in 2009 that likely will deal another defeat to the left. The imminent departure of British Prime Minister Tony Blair draws the final curtain on the former leaders of the “Big Three” – Blair, Schroeder and former French President Jacques Chirac – allowing Europe a clean break with both the liberals and the past.
The biggest recent leftist loss occurred in France, where Nicolas Sarkozy beat out socialist Segolene Royal for the presidency. This defeat clearly suggests that something more than cyclical politics is at work. The French Socialist Party – traditionally the powerhouse of leftist politics in Europe – has not held the presidency since 1995, and it has enjoyed only minimal parliamentary representation since 2002. It now risks being all but purged from parliament in the June 10 and June 17 elections.
The impact of this center-right shift already is being felt in the negotiations over the European constitution. Whereas in 2005 the main French opposition to a European constitution came from the socialist left, Sarkozy is pushing forward with a watered-down constitution. Unlike the constitutional drafts of the leftist European politicians, who championed the unworkable (and ultimately defeated) idea of a federalized Europe, the new document – penned by the right – will be a “mini-treaty” that focuses on streamlining EU functions rather than any fundamental extensions of Brussels’ power.
A right-leaning Europe could be united under one leader, particularly since the states are brought closer together by common problems such as immigration and economic reform. But it remains to be seen which state will emerge to lead, and in what direction. There are two immediate contenders: The first is Germany, where a recent economic renaissance has given the country the opportunity to forge a consensus in Europe and to further its own agenda. For the first time in decades, Germany is a full and powerful member of the European community. More important, for the first time in centuries, there is no established political regime in Europe to counter German ambitions. The second is the United States, whose reach and influence in Europe runs deep.
For now, these two powers are more or less on the same page, sharing concerns about terrorism, energy security, immigration and Russian relations. The latter is the issue of the day; the Kremlin’s primary strategic thrust always has been to divide and conquer the European Union, and so – from the U.S. viewpoint – being able to count on a powerful and friendly Germany to ride herd on the Continent is no small blessing.
But do not confuse the temporary alignment of interests with a permanent state of affairs. Sure, the United States currently sees Russia as a rival and Germany as an ally. Yet this situation is an aberration in both U.S. and European affairs. All of European history is a tale of Germany either expanding or being contained. The deepest fear in U.S. strategic circles is that a single power – whether German or Russian – will dominate the Continent. After all, only a Continent-wide European power could hope to one day unseat the United States.
For now, Russia is the clear danger to U.S. interests in Eurasia, and the German-led allied states of Europe are the perfect tool to keep the Kremlin in check. However, as Europe matures – or, more likely, as Germany grows into its role as the dominant state – the United States could decide it prefers tensions between Europe and Russia to a more harmonious relationship between the two.
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