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from Stratfor.com
Summary
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam fired on Sri Lankan military helicopters carrying seven foreign diplomats, including the U.S. and Italian ambassadors, in Sri Lanka’s Eastern Province on Feb. 27. The Sri Lankan government accused the Tigers of targeting civilians, though the Tigers have said they did not know the foreign diplomats were present. In either case, the Tigers have raised their profile and given the Sri Lankan government a better chance to elicit greater military aid and support from Washington and the European Union to counter the rebels.
Analysis
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam fired four mortar shells Feb. 27, injuring the Italian and U.S. ambassadors to Sri Lanka as they were visiting parts of Eastern Province on a humanitarian mission. The shells were fired at an air force base at Batticaloa at about 8:45 a.m. local time. Italian Ambassador Prio Marini suffered minor shrapnel wounds to the head and was taken to a hospital, whereas U.S. Ambassador Robert Blake sustained only minor injuries and was treated on site. The ambassadors were among seven foreign diplomats accompanied by Sri Lanka’s human rights minister and were touring an area that Sri Lankan forces had recently wrested from the rebels.
The Tigers are an extremely sophisticated militant organization with excellent intelligence and surveillance on this specific air force base and on the movements of Sri Lankan diplomats in general. That said, it does not appear that the Tigers intended to attack the Western diplomats. The rebels likely thought they were targeting a large Sri Lankan military delegation. The envoys probably were traveling in Bell-412 and Bell 412EP helicopters, which are used for conveying VIPs. These helicopters have clear Sri Lankan air force markings, giving the Tigers good identifiers for attack targets.
The Tigers immediately released a statement expressing shock and dismay that the diplomats were injured, but blamed the army for putting foreigners in harm’s way. The army replied by saying that the attack began after the diplomats stepped off the helicopter and was clearly intended to injure civilians on a humanitarian mission. The Sri Lankan Embassy in Washington said the helicopters landed in an area that is used exclusively by VIP guests. Furthermore, it was a pre-arranged meeting, which would have allowed the Tigers time to prepare an attack.
The Sri Lankan government has an interest in playing up the attack to encourage Western governments to increase military aid to Sri Lanka and to crack down further on the Tigers’ worldwide financial networks. The U.S. State Department says the Western ambassadors likely were not the specific target of this attack, and the United States is unlikely to respond to the incident in the short term; however, the attack could have a longer-term effect on U.S. and European military aid to Sri Lanka. Washington has been pushing for a harder stance against the rebel group – especially in getting the European Union to designate the Tigers as a terrorist organization – which could mean that Sri Lanka might eventually find enhanced support for its military policies in the West. Very few countries in South Asia – or in the wider international community – support the idea of a separate Tamil homeland, and this attitude is likely to be strengthened in light of the recent attack.
Though the Tigers have avoided targeting Westerners in their attacks, there is precedent for the Tigers targeting select foreign representatives, such as the attack on Pakistani Ambassador Bashir Wali Mohamed in August 2006. That attack came as a response to increased defense cooperation between Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The Tigers were sending a clear message that any military aid or assistance to Colombo would result in retaliation.
Attacking Western diplomats would be especially counterproductive for the Tigers, as they depend on the foreign Tamil diaspora, particularly in Canada and Europe, for financial support. The Tigers also maintain global networks to raise funds and even arrange weapons purchases. Approximately 300,000 Tamils live in Europe, but the Tigers are on thin ice with the Europeans. The Tigers have kept up a facade of negotiations to keep the Europeans engaged, but even the Norwegians mediating the talks between the Tigers and the Sri Lankan government are beginning to show signs of fatigue after years of deadlock. Europe’s exasperation over the continuous tit-for-tat fighting between Colombo and the Tigers with no sign of a resolution was made apparent in May 2006, when it made the decision to list the Tigers as a terrorist organization and freeze their official bank accounts. Besides knocking the wind out of the rebels’ fundraising, the EU decision set back the Tigers’ propaganda war because they have a large official presence in many EU countries, including their international secretariat in Paris.
The Batticaloa attack is unlikely to change the ongoing cycle of violence on the island; in fact, Sri Lankan planes bombed suspected rebel sites just hours after the attack against the diplomats. The Tigers have, however unintentionally, raised their profile in Western capitals in such a way that the group will find it harder to get concessions from foreign governments and maintain a level playing field against Colombo. Furthermore, the Sri Lankan government will certainly use this attack as leverage to get increased military funding and assistance.
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