Bin Laden Tape: Refocusing Al Qaeda, Embracing Al-Zarqawi

from stratfor.com

Summary

A new audiotaped communique allegedly from Osama bin Laden

surfaced Dec. 27. On the tape, the al Qaeda leader calls upon

Iraqis to boycott the Jan. 30 elections and announces that top

Iraqi jihadist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is the network's

representative in Iraq. This message shows that al Qaeda is very

much interested in becoming a player in Iraq. That al Qaeda

officially has announced al-Zarqawi's affiliation with the

militant network also indicates that al Qaeda may be weakening --

or returning to its old tactics.

Analysis

Arabic-language satellite channel Al Jazeera reported that it has

received a new audiotaped statement from al Qaeda's central

leader Osama bin Laden, in which the jihadist mastermind calls

for a boycott of the Jan. 30 elections in Iraq and pronounces top

jihadist leader in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi his deputy.

If authentic, this taped message is the first official statement

from al Qaeda prime that al-Zarqawi's group constitutes the

jihadist network's Iraqi chapter. Osama bin Laden, in keeping

with his moves of the past year, wants al Qaeda to assume a more

political role. Considering that Iraq is a majority Shiite state

and -- unlike Saudi Arabia -- its Sunni population does not share

al Qaeda's Wahhabist theological underpinnings, al Qaeda's role

in Iraq will be similar to that which the network is playing in

the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which it uses as an example of

problems facing the Muslim world in order to advance its own

agenda.

Given this reality -- and that al Qaeda, after months of al-

Zarqawi's efforts, has finally joined forces with his group --

suggests that the jihadist network may no longer be a strategic

threat or driver of the international jihadist movement, and it

is trying to counter that slip with a tactical shift in Iraq. Al

Qaeda appears to be re-centering its focus on the Middle East --

pulling away from the West to focus its efforts closer to home,

and closer to the larger pool of recruits.

The U.S.-led war against militant Islamism appears to have dealt

a serious blow to al Qaeda's operational capabilities. The

movement's apex leadership forced into hiding likely is unable to

stage an attack on the scale of September 11. Therefore, it has

resorted to assuming a much more political role as the

ideological and geostrategic vanguard of the global tendency

towards jihadism.

Prior to this official statement from bin Laden, al Qaeda's

branch in Saudi Arabia had welcomed al-Zarqawi's pledge of

allegiance to al Qaeda and bin Laden. Both al-Zarqawi and al

Qaeda hope that this bilateral announcement will enhance the

jihadists' fortunes, not just in Iraq, but worldwide.

It is unclear what type of enhanced operational capabilities

jihadists in Iraq will be able to display as a result of this

merger between al-Zarqawi's group based in Iraq and al Qaeda

prime, whose leadership is based in Pakistan. There also is the

matter of the attitude toward the Shia. Al-Zarqawi's

understanding is that they are a heretical community, while al

Qaeda has thus far refrained from attacking Shia, per se --

perhaps because some key Shiite figures are believed to be hiding

out in Iran.

By issuing a call to boycott the polls, bin Laden's al Qaeda

movement is trying to develop its image as a political player and

not just a military group. Barring the Sunni minority (who

already have announced their decision not to partake in the

electoral process) the call likely will go unheeded. It would

appear that al Qaeda is trying to assume leadership of local and

regional jihadist actors post facto.